Best Original Screenplay
1. Inglourious Basterds (lock)
2. The Hurt Locker (lock)
3. Up (probably)
4. (500) Days of Summer (shaky)
5. A Serious Man (shaky)
Alternate(s):
Avatar, The Hangover
I'm pretty confident about this lineup. People seem to be worried about (500) Days of Summer, but I think it'll get in. A screenplay nod is an easy way to honor an inventive film that clearly a lot of people loved. Pixar has had no trouble getting nominations here in the past (Cars notwithstanding), so I think Up gets in as well. A Serious Man should coast in here as well, especially since I'm predicting it for best picture. If The Hangover gets nominated, well goodnight. It was nice knowing you.
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air (lock)
2. Precious (lock)
3. An Education (probable)
4. Crazy Heart (shaky)
5. Where the Wild Things Are (wild card--no pun intended)
Alternate(s):
Julie & Julia, Invictus
Call me crazy. It's total wishful thinking to predict Where the Wild Things Are, but I just have a hunch. The top three are probably safe. Due to lack of competition, don't be surprised to see Crazy Heart in there as well. I know Julie & Julia got a WGA nomination, but I can't imagine that they would nominate this particular screenplay, it being so abysmal.
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