1. Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart (lock)
2. George Clooney - Up in the Air (lock)
3. Colin Firth - A Single Man (lock)
4. Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker (probable)
5. Morgan Freeman - Invictus (probable)
Viggo Mortensen - The Road, Joseph Gordon-Levitt - (500) Days of Summer, Daniel Day-Lewis - Nine, Sam Rockwell - Moon
Of all the acting races, this is the least volatile. The five I've predicted are probably your five nominees. I contend that Morgan Freeman is on shakier ground than Jeremy Renner and here's why. Not only is Renner going to be on a lot of ballots, but he's going to be #1 or #2 on the ballots of people who really love The Hurt Locker and we're all told that helps. I wager Morgan Freeman is not going to be at the top of anyone's ballot, although I could be projecting. If either of the bottom two men miss, it could be any number of possibilities. Viggo Mortensen, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Daniel Day-Lewis or Sam Rockwell if they're feeling generous, welcoming, unimaginative or frisky, respectively. But again, I believe these are your five.