1. Mo'Nique - Precious (lock)
2. Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air (lock)
3. Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air (lock)
4. Julianne Moore - A Single Man (shaky)
5. Melanie Laurent - Inglourious Basterds (wild card)
Samantha Morton - The Messenger, Penelope Cruz - Nine, Diane Kruger - Inglourious Basterds, Marion Cotillard - Nine
Mo'Nique and the Up in the Air girls are locked, loaded and ready to go. Outside of those three is where it gets a little hazy. There's Julianne Moore, who's gotten decent precursor response. But her role wasn't very demanding and the performance was far from remarkable. Will they go for her? I actually believe that Melanie Laurent would be in had they campaigned her in supporting from the beginning rather than switching gears midway. If she gets in, it'll be only barely. The last two spots could conceivably be taken over by any of the alternates. Samantha Morton is fabulous in The Messenger and is one of the best actresses working today. Penelope Cruz is fine in Nine, but the film's tepid reception combined with her recent win may make things difficult. Diane Kruger is also an interesting test case. Her SAG nomination could translate to love here. And then there's Marion Cotillard, who was campaigned as a lead for Nine, even though she's clearly supporting. I'm guessing this was in deference to Public Enemies, but man was that ever a miscalculation. She's not as beloved or overdue as Winslet to overcome the category fraud, so I'm guessing she misses here.