Oscar Predictions -- Best Picture

2008 in cinema is turning out to be a nebulous one. That film has yet to come out (unless you call The Dark Knight that film--which I'm loath to) that people are certain will land on top ten lists come years end. I'm reserving my judgment until I see Rachel Getting Married this Friday (so excited). I've heard good things, but my expectations are pessimistically low. Because I also heard great things about Juno so much so that I went into it convinced I rave about it (I know, you should never do that. I'm only human). It was so disappointing that I almost failed to recognize that it is actually an okay film, so violent was my anger at all the raving reviewers and fanboys.

Here's what I see going on in the big race.

Best Picture
Still as unclear as ever. I have faith (so much faith that I'm setting myself up for heartbreak) that Australia will be amazing and it will also land Baz Luhrmann his first best director nomination. Even moreso after watching Moulin Rouge! for the first time. Each new trailer looks more promising so I'm holding a spot for it until further evidence prompts me to do otherwise. Ditto for Milk, which I have a hunch will become that film. I currently have The Dark Knight under my predics for best picture, but I'm becoming less and less confident with each passing day. I'll keep it there for now, but I dunno... Slumdog Millionaire has some serious buzz, but so does The Wrestler. Which festival darling to include? One? Both? Neither? For now, I'm saying neither and putting in Rachel Getting Married as this year's "comedy" entry. The buzz is growing pretty steadily for that one, n'est pas? I'm swapping out Revolutionary Road for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button in a case of both wishful thinking and logic. Marital strife/domestic drama is so late 90s, early aughts. Sam Mendes may be invited back to the party some day, but I don't think this is the picture that will do it (though I would love for both films to get nominated). Will the Academy ever "get" David Fincher? This will be there ultimate test if Benjamin Button is even half as good as it looks. Clint Eastwood has two pictures coming out this year and it seems foolish not to include one of them, especially with his given track record. But I've heard very little about Gran Torrino and The Changeling doesn't look like it's going to be that film for him this year. Plus, he's quickly becoming the John Williams of the director set, in that he gets nominated every year he works. Is he really that good?

Australia
The Dark Knight
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk
Rachel Getting Married