Emmy Predictions

People who know that I love the Oscars often assume that I will therefore love the Emmy's, which I don't get. Or the Grammy's, which I understand even less. But I digress. I certainly don't hate the Emmy's. It's just that I normally don't get as excited as I do about the Oscars. As often as I disagree about the deserving nature of the films nominated for Oscars, I agree even less that the television shows nominated for Emmy's are truly deserving (except under a few circumstances). Alas, here are my predictions for who will win big tonight.

*What I think will win
+What I think should win
**You never know...

Outstanding Comedy Series

30 Rock*+
Two And A Half Men
Curb Your Enthusiasm
Entourage
The Office**

Conventional wisdom says that "30 Rock" takes this. True, they won last year, but the Emmy's aren't like the Golden Globes. They like to repeat themselves "30 Rock" is also my pick. I like "The Office" just fine, but it had a really off season and it feels like it's on its way out.
Should have been nominated: "Flight of the Conchords"

Outstanding Drama Series

Boston Legal**
Damages
Dexter+
House
Lost
Mad Men*

Okay, so "Mad Men" is the it show of the moment. And from what I've seen of it, it deserves the acclaim (I'm reinstating my blockbuster account soon and Mad Men Season 1 shall be at the top of my queue). I'm fine with a win for "Mad Men" but not so much that I can pretend it's superior to "Dexter." Though people seem to like "Boston Legal." That's one of those shows that always seems to get nominated for Emmy's, even though it supposedly sucks. Well, my friend's roommate made us sit through a couple of episodes of "Boston Legal" and I'm happy to confirm that it does in fact suck. Which means it might win, because the world is against me. And none of these shows are superior to...
Should have been nominated: "Big Love"

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Alec Baldwin - "30 Rock"+
Steve Carrell - "The Office"*
Lee Pace - "Pushing Daisies"
Tony Shalhoub - "Monk"
Charlie Sheen - "Two and a Half Men"**

I will never understand the notion that "Two and a Half Men" is somehow a funny show. Seriously, it gets nominated in every possible category every year. What gives? This one should go to Alec Baldwin, who is superb on "30 Rock." But I have a feeling they'll tip their hat to Steve Carrell for his work on "The Office." He's lost out before and his star is rising. Plus, Alec Baldwin made all those comments about how "30 Rock" rules and "Scrubs" and "My Name is Earl" suck. That might make him seem unsympathetic and it's all very political.
Should have been nominated: Charlie Day for "It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia"

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Christina Applegate - "Samantha Who?"
America Ferrera - "Ugly Betty"**
Tina Fey - "30 Rock"*
Julia Louis-Dreyfus - "The New Adventures of Old Christine"
Mary-Louise Parker - "Weeds"+

I love "30 Rock" and am a fan of all things Tina Fey. I'll even be happy for her if she wins tonight. She's very good on "30 Rock" but I can't pretend that what she does is superior to what Mary-Louise Parker does on "Weeds." Of course, America Ferrera could win for the overrated "Ugly Betty" like she did last year. They do like to repeat themselves. But for now, I say Fey takes it.
Should have been nominated: Marcia Cross for "Desperate Housewives"

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Gabriel Byrne - "In Treatment"
Bryan Cranston - "Breaking Bad"
Michael C. Hall - "Dexter"*
John Hamm - "Mad Men"+
Hugh Laurie - "House"
James Spader - "Boston Legal"**

Michael C. Hall deserves it. John Hamm will probably get it, knock on wood. But James Spader won last year. And there's always Hugh Laurie to consider. A win for Spader or Laurie wouldn't surprise me, but I still say that Hamm gets it.
Should have been nominated: Bill Paxton for "Big Love"

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Glenn Close - "Damages"+
Sally Field - "Brothers and Sisters"**
Mariska Hargitay - "Law and Order: Special Victims Unit"
Holly Hunter - "Saving Grace"
Keira Sedgwick - "The Closer"*

I've seen enough of each of these shows, maybe with the exception of Holly Hunter's (I've got to check it out. She was so good in The Piano), to know that these are all fine performances. Even though I've only seen a couple episodes of "The Closer" I think Sedgwick deserves it, even over Sally Field, who I watch more often on "Brothers and Sisters" and who was last year's surprise winner. Conventional wisdom says that they won't let Field anywhere near the stage after her "inflammatory" speech last year. But if they let Kathy Griffin win two years in a row, then come on... All of these women are foreseeable winners, but I think it will ultimately go to Close.
Should have been nominated: Jeanne Tripplehorn for "Big Love"

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie

I won't even bother listing the nominees because Paul Giamatti will win this handedly for "John Adams." That is all.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie

Ditto for Laura Liney.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

John Cryer - "Two and a Half Men"
Kevin Dillon - "The Entourage"
Neil Patrick Harris - "How I Met Your Mother"**
Jeremy Piven - "Entourage"*
Rainn Wilson - "The Office"+

Can I just say that it's great to see two gay actors nominated for...Oh, wait. Sorry. Jeremy Piven is "straight." Where is my mind? There's not much to say about this category. Jeremy Piven will probably win. Rainn Wilson deserves it. But both Harris and Cryer have a real chance of upsetting. And Dillon is happy to be there.
Should have been nominated: John C. McGinley for "Scrubs"

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Kristin Chenoweth - "Pushing Daisies"**
Amy Poehler - "Saturday Night Live"*
Jean Smart - "Samantha Who?"
Holland Taylor - "Two and a Half Men"
Vanessa Williams - "Ugly Betty"+

I guess of these five nominees, Amy Poehler is my favorite. But honestly, I don't care about this category. Not when it doesn't include Jane Krakowski for "30 Rock" or Elizabeth Perkins for "Weeds". I predict Vanessa Williams to take it, but Kristin Chenoweth is supposedly just darling on "Pushing Daisies," so watch out.
Should have been nominated: Elizabeth Perkins for "Weeds" or Jane Krakowski for "30 Rock." Everything they both say is hilarious.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Ted Danson - "Damages"+
Michael Emerson - "Lost"
Zeljko Ivanek - "Damages"
William Shatner - "Boston Legal"**
John Slattery - "Mad Men"*

I don't really care about this category either, but what I've seen of "Mad Men," speaks well of John Slattery's performance. I think it will go to Ted Danson, but who knows? And of course Shatner's always a possibility.
Should have been nominated: Harry Dean Stanton for "Big Love" (Are we seeing a pattern yet?)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Candice Bergen - "Boston Legal"**
Rachel Griffiths - "Brothers and Sisters"*
Sandra Oh - "Grey's Anatomy"
Dianne Wiest - "In Treatment"
Chandra Wilson - "Grey's Anatomy"+

Everyone thinks Chandra Wilson should get it for "Grey's Anatomy." I have no problem with her winning. I have a problem with her character on that show, who is such a mammy archetype, it borders on offensive (especially since the showrunner is a BLACK. WOMAN.) I think Rachel Griffiths should get it for her searing work on "Brother's and Sisters," but I think it will go to Wilson.
Should have been nominated: Patricia Wettig for "Brothers and Sisters"

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie

I'd bother listing the nominees, but I think that we're looking at a John Adams sweep. It's going to be Tom Wilkinson hands down.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie

Eileen Atkins - "Cranford"**
Laura Dern - "Recount"+
Ashley Jensen - "Extras: The Extra Special Series Finale"
Audra McDonald - "A Raisin in the Sun"*
Alfre Woodard - "Pictures of Hollis Woods"

I just love Audra McDonald, so I'd love to see her win here, even if the TV version of "A Raisin in the Sun" was vomit inducing. But Laura Dern will probably get it. This is the easiest way to reward "Recount."