Thursday, December 11, 2008

Golden Globe Nominations

Golden Globe Nominations

Best Film - Drama

  • The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
  • Frost/Nixon
  • The Reader
  • Revolutionary Road
  • Slumdog Millionaire
Who takes a hit? The absence of Milk is puzzling. Homophobia? But the HFPA awarded Brokeback Mountain their best picture prize. Who knows? It's puzzling, yes, but probably doesn't mean anything. I still believe Milk is in, just as I believe that the best picture nods here for The Reader and Revolutionary Road won't translate as Oscar love. The Dark Knight takes a huge dive. It can still make it, but a nod here would have firmed things up in a good way.

Predicted Winner: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. Though Slumdog Millionaire could easily upset. Anything else would be a surprise.

Best Film - Musical or Comedy

  • Burn After Reading
  • Happy-Go-Lucky
  • In Bruges
  • Mamma Mia!
  • Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Who takes a hit? No one. There are actually no comedic or musical heavy hitters this year that were ever bound for Oscar glory. Which makes this category all the more fun.
This is an exciting category since the HFPA is not bound to award the film with the best Oscar chances. All of these films have very little chance at a best picture nod. Thank God they didn't nominate High School Musical.

Predicted Winner: Burn After Reading (it's definitely the most popular of the five, right?)

Best Actor - Drama

  • Leonardo DiCaprio - Revolutionary Road
  • Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
  • Sean Penn - Milk
  • Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
  • Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
What a volatile category this is! Great nominations across the board, I must say. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a 5/5 matchup of this lineup in the Oscar best actor race. The most vulnerable are DiCaprio and Pitt, in that order. Either one of them could easily be shoved aside for Richard Jenkins or even Clint Eastwood. But...
Who takes a hit? Clint Eastwood. If the Globes, in all of their starfucking, couldn't see fit to honor Clint Eastwood for Gran Torino (in what admittedly looks like a pretty wretched, laughable performance) then where does that leave him? The SAGs will tell and don't forget he got an acting nod for Million Dollar Baby when the precursors weren't rallying, but this is a pretty big hit. I for one hope he gets passed over. Having Clint out of the race automatically makes things simpler. Because if he's nominated, he'll probably win. Ugh.

Predicted Winner: For now, I'm saying Penn, but if they loved Milk enough to give it to him, why no best picture or director nod? They've awarded DiCaprio before, and Langella is playing a real person who's NOT gay. That always helps. This could also be where Rourke makes his move. Very volatile indeed.

Best Actor - Musical or Comedy

  • Javier Bardem - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
  • Colin Farrell - In Bruges
  • James Franco - Pineapple Express
  • Brendan Gleeson - In Bruges
  • Dustin Hoffman - Last Chance Harvey
Who takes a hit? No one. Again, no real male leading comedic performances have a shot at Oscar.

Predicted Winner: Dustin Hoffman

Best Actress - Drama

  • Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
  • Angelina Jolie - Changeling
  • Meryl Streep - Doubt
  • Kristin Scott Thomas - I've Loved You So Long (Il y a longtemps que je t'aime)
  • Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road
Kristin Scott Thomas really REALLY needed this. Like, severely. This is a big boost, since she's not doing well in the precursors and the critics are rallying around Sally Hawkins. Hathaway, Streep and Winslet are good to go. I'm still not convinced that Jolie is locked and loaded. I hope not, especially since she was passed over for a far better performance at the AMPAS last year.
Who takes a hit? One could say Melissa Leo for Frozen River, but she was NEVER going to get a Golden Globe nomination. They love their stars and the film is simply too small for them. Period. I'd say this hurts Cate Blanchett. I personally was never really buying the lead actress buzz for her Benjamin Button performance. Not for one minute. Hopefully I won't have to think about it anymore.

Predicted Winner: I think Meryl Streep will win this handily. If (big IF) there's a spoiler, I believe it's Ms. Hathaway. If Winslet wins here, it's down to her and Streep for the Oscar.

Best Actress - Musical or Comedy

  • Rebecca Hall - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
  • Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
  • Frances McDormand - Burn After Reading
  • Meryl Streep - Mamma Mia!
  • Emma Thompson - Last Chance Harvey
Sally Hawkins needed this nomination. She got it. She's going to win, unless the HFPA decides that they REALLY love Streep.

Predicted Winner: Sally Hawkins

Best Supporting Actor

  • Tom Cruise - Tropic Thunder
  • Robert Downey, Jr. - Tropic Thunder
  • Ralph Fiennes - The Duchess
  • Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
  • Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Who takes a hit? Josh Brolin and James Franco for Milk, as well as Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road. But honestly, it's not really a HUGE deal. We all know that neither Tom Cruise nor Ralph Fiennes are getting in for these respective performances. That leaves two spots open.

Predicted Winner: I think this is where the Heath Ledger steamroll begins.

Best Supporting Actress

  • Amy Adams - Doubt
  • Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
  • Viola Davis - Doubt
  • Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
  • Kate Winslet - The Reader
Who takes a hit? Rosemarie Dewitt for Rachel Getting Married and Taraji P. Henson for Benjamin Button. Dewitt has now missed BFCA and the Globes. If she misses SAG, she may be done for.

Predicted Winner: Penelope Cruz. Though we could see the start of a Kate Winslet sweep in this category, which would suck beyond the telling of it.

Best Director
  • Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
  • Stephen Daldry - The Reader
  • David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
  • Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
  • Sam Mendes - Revolutionary Road
Who takes a hit? Obviously, Gus Van Sant and Christopher Nolan for their respective films (Milk and The Dark Knight). But again, Sam Mendes and Stephen Daldry are not looking very likely at this point, so either of them could move aside for Nolan or Van Sant.

Predicted Winner: David Fincher

Best Screenplay
  • The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Eric Roth
  • Doubt - John Patrick Shanley
  • Frost/Nixon - Peter Morgan
  • The Reader - David Hare
  • Slumdog Millionaire - Simon Beaufoy
Since the AMPAS (rightly) divides up it's screenplay categories into adapted and original, look to see all of these screenplays announced on nomination morning.

Predicted Winner: This is a good place to reward Slumdog Millionaire.

Best Foreign Language Film

  • The Baader Meinhof Complex (Der Baader Meinhof Komplex) • Germany
  • Everlasting Moments (Maria Larssons eviga √∂gonblick) • Denmark/Sweden
  • Gomorrah (Gomorra) • Italy
  • I've Loved You So Long (Il y a longtemps que je t'aime) • France
  • Waltz with Bashir (Vals im Bashir) • Israel
Predicted Winner: Waltz with Bashir

Best Animated Film
  • Bolt
  • Kung Fu Panda
  • WALL-E
Predicted Winner: Oh my God, do you even have to ask?

Best Original Score

  • "Changeling" - Clint Eastwood
  • "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" - Alexandre Desplat
  • "Defiance" - James Newton Howard
  • "Frost/Nixon" - Hans Zimmer
  • "Slumdog Millionaire" - A. R. Rahman

Best Original Song

  • "I Thought I Lost You" - Bolt
  • "Once in a Lifetime" - Cadillac Records
  • "Gran Torino" - Gran Torino
  • "Down to Earth" - WALL-E
  • "The Wrestler" - The Wrestler

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