Best Original Screenplay
While I'm on the record for not loving The King's Speech, I can't truly bemoan its inevitable win in this category. At the script level, it is everything it should be and my favorite original screenplay of the year isn't nominated anyway. Even The Kids Are All Right, which has structural problems and huge issues of POV (verboten in screenwriting 101) is rich with so many great moments that slightly overshadow the fact that its admirable in parts, rather than as a whole. Inception least deserves its place on the ballot, I'm afraid. If they were going to snub the movie anywhere, it should have been here rather than in Best Director.
Will Win: David Seidler for The King's Speech
Alternate: Christopher Nolan for Inception
Should Win: Um, duh...Mike Leigh for Another Year
Should Have Been Nominated: Derek Cianfrance, Joey Curtis and Cami Delavigne for Blue Valentine.
Best Adapted Screenplay
This is the where The Social Network is most assured to win its trophy. Some are predicting a potential upset because it's been a season of upset, but there's nothing that could feasibly usurp this spot.
Will Win/Should Win: Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network
Alternate: None, really.
Should Have Been Nominated: David Lindsay Abaire for Rabbit Hole
Best Animated Feature
Hmm...this is a tough one. I wonder. Okay...cease facetiousness now. Obviously it's Toy Story 3. I've got to say, I have a feeling that Pixar's mini-sweep (beginning with Ratatouille's win in this category in 2007) ends here, at least for now. Next on their slate are sequels to Cars and Monsters Inc. I suspect those titles will be to the Pixar golden age what Pocahontas was to the Disney Renaissance--the beginning of the end.
Will Win: Toy Story 3
Alternate: How to Train Your Dragon
Should Win: The Illusionist
Best Foreign Language Film
I've only seen one of the nominated films (Dogtooth), so my perspective is off. Even if one has seen all the films, this category is tough to predict. It seems like it's never the title that everyone has heard of nor is it the one that got all the festival buzz. The White Ribbon losing to The Secret in Their Eyes, Waltz With Bashir losing to Departures, Pan's Labyrinth losing to The Lives of Others and Amelie losing to No Man's Land are all examples to support this. With that in mind, I'm going with what sounds like (based on description), the most Oscar friendly choice with Susanne Bier's submission from Denmark, In a Better World. But, again, who knows? The fact that it's one of the few categories where Academy members have to see every nominee in order to vote, there are always surprises. Incidentally, how glorious would it be if all the categories implemented this rule?
Will Win: In a Better World
Alternate: Incendies
Should Win: Like I said, I've only seen Dogtooth, but it is one of my favorite films of the year, so...
Best Documentary Feature
I've only managed to see two of the films, but from what I gather, it's an impressive slate of nominees. The omission of Waiting For Superman, which I sat through a little more than half of and couldn't abide finishing speaks to the nominating committee's discernment. A win for Exit Through the Gift Shop would be exciting, but I've already expressed my lack of passion for that piece. And ultimately, I suspect that Inside Job will take it in the end.
Will Win: Inside Job
Alternate: Exit Through the Gift Shop
Should Win: Restrepo (pending my viewing of the other nominees)
Should Have Been Nominated: Prodigal Sons
Best Original Score
An impressive slate of nominees, even though people seem to be inexplicably down on Alexandre Desplat's score for The King's Speech. I quite liked it, actually. Yes, Desplat has done much much better work in (deep breath now) Lust, Caution, Birth, The Painted Veil and I'm sure his score for the upcoming Tree of Life will be great. My point is that if Desplat finally wins, it'll be a career prize. The 127 Hours nomination is the one that I'd probably substitute for something else. Here we could see the fruits of a King's Speech sweep, or The Social Network could repeat its Golden Globe win here. I'd be shocked if anything other film besides these two won, but I'm going with The King's Speech. The Golden Globe and Oscar rarely match up for Original Score. Plus, The Social Network dominated those awards, which makes the Globes seem rather irrelevant (even more so, I mean), given the way the tide has turned.
Will Win: Alexandre Desplat for The King's Speech
Alternate: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for The Social Network
Should Win: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for The Social Network. So unique and beautiful. I also enjoyed Hans Zimmer's Inception score and Desplat is on my personal ballot as well.
Should Have Been Nominated: Sylvain Chomet for The Illusionist
Best Sound Editing
I'm kind of shocked that Black Swan, a film with excellent sound design couldn't get a nomination in either of the sound categories. That being said, it's not a bad lineup. I say this one goes to Inception because the film's bound to win at least one of the categories (more on why I'm predicting it here later).
Will Win/Should Win: Inception
Alternate: Tron: Legacy as a consolation for the snub in visual effects (but they don't really think like that, do they?)
Should Have Been Nominated: Black Swan
Best Sound Mixing
Inception could easily pull off a win in both sound categories, but how does a voter (if they understand sound mixing) watch the night club scene in The Social Network and not give it this award? Right...most people don't know what sound mixing is. Gotcha. My advice is predict Inception for both because it's bound to win one of the sound categories.
Will Win: Inception
Alternate: The Social Network
Should Win: The Social Network
Should Have Been Nominated: 127 Hours
Best Art Direction
Will Win/Should Win: The King's Speech
Alternate: Inception
Should Have Been Nominated: I Am Love
Best Cinematography
Will Win: Roger Deakins for True Grit, but is it a done deal? Hardly. He's been denied so many times before, so why not this time? And really, my gut is telling me it's Wally Pfister.
Alternate: Wally Pfister for Inception.
Should Win: Matthew Libatique for Black Swan
Should Have Been Nominated: Benoit Debie for Enter the Void, though honestly, Libatique actually getting nominated for Black Swan feels like enough of a get for this category.
Best Editing
Will Win/Should Win: The Social Network
Alternate: The King's Speech
Should Have Been Nominated: Inception
Best Visual Effects
Will Win/Should Win: Inception
Alternate: Nothing.
Should Have Been Nominated: Black Swan
Best Original Song
Will Win: "If I Rise" from 127 Hours
Alternate: "We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3
Should Win: Abstain (who even cares?)
Should Have Been Nominated: Anything other than these four songs.
Best Makeup
Will Win: The Wolfman
Alternate: The Way Back
Should Win: Abstain
Should Have Been Nominated: A Prophet
Best Costume
Will Win: Alice in Wonderland
Alternate: The King's Speech
Should Win: I Am Love
Should have Been Nominated: Black Swan
Best Documentary Short
Will Win: Strangers No More is too much in the Oscar wheelhouse not to win.
Alternate: But then again, so is The Warriors of Qiugang
Best Animated Short
Will Win: Day & Night
Alternate: The Gruffalo, simply because it has a (relatively) all-star cast for an animated short.
Best Live Action Short
Will Win: God of Love
Alternate: Na Wewe
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