Having now finally weighed in on my opinion of what's the best of the year, I thought I'd volunteer my own predictions on how the Oscars will shake down in a couple of weeks. I have to admit that I'm not as excited about the Academy Awards this year. Mostly because the overall starriness of and focus on (or maybe I'm just paying more attention to it this year) the behind the scenes drama is overshadowing the fact that we, once again, with the exception of a few categories, already know who's going to win. The only thing that's left is to hand out the awards, as far as I'm concerned. I'm also not so much invested in the actual race because this is a rare year in that (with the exception of one or two dings here and there) both the nominees AND the presumptive frontrunners in a record number of categories are actually deserving. The Academy did a miraculous job of not embarrassing themselves this year and I say kudos.
Best Picture
I've already stated my feelings about The King's Speech, deeming it high-minded, but finally unremarkable (but still enjoyable--gah, what a contradiction). However, you may be shocked to hear that upon further inspection, it's True Grit, not The King's Speech which I feel least deserves its spot on the ballot. Neither film is ultimately lacking enough to make me feel passionately against it and that speaks highly of the 2010 Best Picture roster, which boasts no truly putrid submissions (usually, even in a year of five nominees, there's at least one or two stinkers). I prefer The Social Network by about a mile, but I don't subscribe to the argument that it's the more timeless choice that will be looked upon fondly. One can't predict how a movie will age. In ten years time, The Social Network may well read how something like American Beauty reads now--a time capsule snapshot of the American ethos that, while important as a historical marker, feels dated. So, despite loving Fincher's film, I don't begrudge The King's Speech its victory, which after the DGA, PGA and SAG sweep seems likely. I don't think it's over, though.
Will Win: The King's Speech
Alternate: The Social Network
Should Win: The Social Network
Should Have Been Nominated: Their top ten is not necessarily my top ten, but it's respectable. I'm not even going to suggest that the Academy should totally overhaul their membership and/or way of thinking by including some of my favorites such as Dogtooth, Blue Valentine or The Illusionist.
Best Director
A hard race to call. My gut still says Fincher. And now that even the BAFTAs have gone with him, a split between picture and director seems all the more likely, in spite of Tom Hooper's DGA win.
Will Win: David Fincher for The Social Network
Alternate: Tom Hooper for The King's Speech
Should Win: I really respect David Fincher's work and I do think he should win. But a small part of me wants to see David O. Russell rewarded, who does the most heavy lifting of all five nominees to elevate his film.
Should Have Been Nominated: Christopher Nolan for Inception. He's nowhere near my personal ballot, so this seems like a strange citation, but I wish they would just reward the poor guy already and stop the fanboy whining. Especially since he landed yet another screenplay nomination and anyone who tells you that Nolan is a better writer than a director is insane.
Best Actor
Hmm...I suppose it could be...Oh, who am I kidding. There's no discussion at this point. Signed, sealed, delivered, it's h-h-h-his.
Will Win: Colin Firth for The King's Speech
Alternate: Hell freezing over.
Should Win: Given the absence of Ryan Gosling, I'm almost tempted to say "Who cares?" But that's sour grapes. This is actually a fine lineup, even if it's not mine. Of the five nominees, Jesse Eisenberg gets my vote.
Should Have Been Nominated: Have you not been paying attention? Ryan Gosling.
Best Actress
Again, a fine lineup. The fact that the neither of the two conceivable winners from this category are on my ballot, yet both give top form performances speaks to the quality of the work. I'm glad Best Actress is allowed to be good again, after two years in a row where it was kind of spotty. Natalie Portman has this locked up, I think. Not quite as locked as Firth in Best Actor, but anyone who's still trying to sell the narrative that it's a race between her and Bening is frankly grasping at straws.
Will Win: Natalie Portman for Black Swan.
Alternate: Annette Bening for The Kids Are All Right
Should Win: Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine. No question. Though either Jennifer Lawrence or Nicole Kidman would make almost equally fetching alternatives. And as I've stated, it's a lineup where it'd be difficult to be upset, no matter the outcome. These are five actresses working at the top of their form.
Should Have Been Nominated: Lesley Manville for Another Year, though (for the record), I never once believed that she would be.
Best Supporting Actor
What's with the acting categories this year? I can't remember the last time they were all this good. I'm most surprised by Best Supporting Actor, which is usually the worst of the four acting races by a mile. But I'm honestly not mad about any of these nominations. Even Geoffrey Rush, who's acting I usually don't respond to is more enjoyable in The King's Speech than I've ever found him. I don't think he'll be Christian Bale, as some are predicting. Unless they really like The King's Speech...
Will Win/Should Win: Christian Bale for The Fighter.
Alternate: Geoffrey Rush for The King's Speech
Should Have Been Nominated: Not to be down Jeremy Renner, who I think is fantastic in The Town, but I don't think this nomination really does anything for his career that wasn't already going on anyway (he's already taking over the world). So I'd swap him out for one of the lauded Andrew Garfield performances (The Social Network or Never Let Me Go), both of which I preferred to Renner's work. And while I do prefer Renner to Rush, I'm fully acknowledging that in no universe resembling this one was Geoffrey Rush NOT getting nominated.
Best Supporting Actress
Save Hailey Steinfeld, another great lineup. Not to diss Ms. Steinfeld. Her work in True Grit is quite accomplished, but the category fraud and the undeniable schism of quality between her work and the other nominees is insurmountable. Some think she'll win, but I personally don't think so. The Melissa Leo personal FYC ads debacle is (in my humble opinion) being really overstated. What I think this category really comes down to is how many voters watch Animal Kingdom. Because frankly, not to put too fine a point on it, but I don't see how Jacki Weaver doesn't pull of a Marcia Gay Harden-style upset if enough Academy members pop in their screeners.
Will Win: Melissa Leo for The Fighter, but it's by no means a sure thing.
Alternate: Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom
Should Win: Jackie Weaver for Animal Kingdom
Should Have Been Nominated: I'm mostly fine with this lineup. I would have liked to see Mia Wasikowska land a nod for her subtle, understated work in The Kids Are All Right. Especially in a year where she also made Alice in Wonderland. A nomination for the former may have been a subtle industry hint about the kind of movies she should continue making and the kind of movies she should steer clear of.
Predictions: Part 2 coming up...
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Saturday, February 12, 2011
Sunday, November 7, 2010
First Oscar Predictions of the Season - Best Picture
The Oscar race this year will be a relaxed one, at least where I am concerned. I just came back from a screening of Blue Valentine, which I'll talk about later (knock on wood) and at greater length, but it ranks up there with Winter's Bone, Dogtooth, Never Let Me Go and The Social Network as indelible cinema experiences of 2010 that just won't let go (no pun intended). I suppose you could put 127 Hours in that category as well, although I can almost tell a film that's going to recede in my memory, even it if is one that I love.
That being said, here are my slapped together, haphazard predictions.
Best Picture
*Locked
**Probable
+Shaky
++Who Knows?
1. The Social Network*
2. The King's Speech*
3. 127 Hours**
4. Toy Story 3**
5. Inception+
6. Winter's Bone+
7. The Kids Are All Right+
8. The Way Back++
9. Never Let Me Go++
10. Black Swan++
Alternate: True Grit, The Fighter, Another Year, How to Train Your Dragon, Get Low
Okay. Several things to address. I think a lot of guns are being jumped at this point. In my mind, the only two true locks in this category are The King's Speech and The Social Network. 127 Hours is nearing lock status, but we have to see how people respond to it (God forbid). Toy Story 3...everyone is calling it a lock. I've yet to see it (I know, I know), but I don't think we can assume that Pixar is going to have a horse in the race every year just because there are now ten best picture nominees. Beyond those four very likely candidates, it's really anyone's game from where I'm sitting. Inception seems like a distant memory, doesn't it? And the reasoning that they'll nominate it as penance for snubbing The Dark Knight doesn't compute for me. First of all, Nolan already has an Oscar nod for writing, so it's not like they've ignored him completely. And if they loved The Dark Knight so freaking much, they would have nominated it. Fact. The Kids Are All Right read as very slight to me, but even ignoring my own feelings, there are plenty of ways (Bening aside) for them to screw up an Oscar campaign for this film. Ditto for Winter's Bone, which is in a better position than The Kids Are All Right. That film will be championed come year's end and I personally think that the people predicting Jennifer Lawrence to miss a best actress nod are crazy (I'm not naming names). My reasoning on Never Let Me Go, The Way Back and Black Swan. I can see each of these films having intense pockets of love. Never Let Me Go already does. The people who love that film (moi, for instance) really really love it. And we know Aronofsky is going to have his partisans. Basically, I had to fill ten slots and I don't feel comfortable predicting True Grit, which everyone seems high on for some reason even though no one has seen it. Exactly three of the Coen Bros' many films have been nominated for best picture. Three. Plus, are we forgetting that the original True Grit didn't even get a best picture nomination? Am I missing something here? I know I said the same thing about Avatar last year, but I don't see why people are automatically labeling True Grit a best picture contender. I will admit that the film looks spectacular, but the Coens are not overdue at this point, the Academy is not really hot on Westerns these days, shall I go on?
That being said, here are my slapped together, haphazard predictions.
Best Picture
*Locked
**Probable
+Shaky
++Who Knows?
1. The Social Network*
2. The King's Speech*
3. 127 Hours**
4. Toy Story 3**
5. Inception+
6. Winter's Bone+
7. The Kids Are All Right+
8. The Way Back++
9. Never Let Me Go++
10. Black Swan++
Alternate: True Grit, The Fighter, Another Year, How to Train Your Dragon, Get Low
Okay. Several things to address. I think a lot of guns are being jumped at this point. In my mind, the only two true locks in this category are The King's Speech and The Social Network. 127 Hours is nearing lock status, but we have to see how people respond to it (God forbid). Toy Story 3...everyone is calling it a lock. I've yet to see it (I know, I know), but I don't think we can assume that Pixar is going to have a horse in the race every year just because there are now ten best picture nominees. Beyond those four very likely candidates, it's really anyone's game from where I'm sitting. Inception seems like a distant memory, doesn't it? And the reasoning that they'll nominate it as penance for snubbing The Dark Knight doesn't compute for me. First of all, Nolan already has an Oscar nod for writing, so it's not like they've ignored him completely. And if they loved The Dark Knight so freaking much, they would have nominated it. Fact. The Kids Are All Right read as very slight to me, but even ignoring my own feelings, there are plenty of ways (Bening aside) for them to screw up an Oscar campaign for this film. Ditto for Winter's Bone, which is in a better position than The Kids Are All Right. That film will be championed come year's end and I personally think that the people predicting Jennifer Lawrence to miss a best actress nod are crazy (I'm not naming names). My reasoning on Never Let Me Go, The Way Back and Black Swan. I can see each of these films having intense pockets of love. Never Let Me Go already does. The people who love that film (moi, for instance) really really love it. And we know Aronofsky is going to have his partisans. Basically, I had to fill ten slots and I don't feel comfortable predicting True Grit, which everyone seems high on for some reason even though no one has seen it. Exactly three of the Coen Bros' many films have been nominated for best picture. Three. Plus, are we forgetting that the original True Grit didn't even get a best picture nomination? Am I missing something here? I know I said the same thing about Avatar last year, but I don't see why people are automatically labeling True Grit a best picture contender. I will admit that the film looks spectacular, but the Coens are not overdue at this point, the Academy is not really hot on Westerns these days, shall I go on?
Sunday, February 28, 2010
Final Oscar Predictions
I'm going to be on set Oscar weekend. As a result, I will not be watching the ceremony live...the first time I haven't watched the Oscars since Titanic swept. I keep telling myself that it's better to be on set making movies than to be watching people winning awards for movies...right? Whatever. I'm still sad. But enough about me...
Here are my final predictions for the big categories.
Best Picture
will win/should win: The Hurt Locker
should have been nominated: I'm fine with like 80% of the best picture list, but I would have liked to see The Messenger get some more love. Hunger is ineligible.
I'm going back and forth on this one, but not in the way that you'd think. I'm not buying the Avatar talk. Yes, it's a money machine. But it got zero acting nods and no writing nomination. Plus, it lost the Producers Guild Award in what should have been a cakewalk. It's no secret that a lot of actors not only dislike it, but they are offended by the sheer notion of motion capture as acting. Actors make up the largest branch in the academy. The Hurt Locker has the DGA, the PGA, the WGA and the ACE Eddie Award. Statistically, any film with this haul is not going to lose, despite whatever hamhanded controversy is being drummed up by so and so sending such and such email to what's his name. The bottom line: no one would even be talking about Avatar winning best picture if it wasn't for the Golden Globe win--an award that, prior to Slumdog Millionaire last year, hadn't matched up with the Oscar winner since Lord of the Rings. So, it's the Hurt Locker with Inglourious Basterds as a long-range spoiler, followed by Avatar in third.
Best Director
will win/should win: Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
should have been nominated: my ballot includes Jane Campion and John Hillcoat
It's a done deal. Even if The Hurt Locker somehow, in some universe very not like this one loses best picture, Bigelow is still going to win. There's so much enthusiasm behind her at this point. It's always possible to lose, but I just can't imagine who she'd lose to. Cameron? Already has one and he's not very well liked. Tarantino? Maybe... Reitman? Too soon. Daniels? Too black. Bigelow's got this and I'm firmly in her corner.
Best Actor
will win/should win: Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
should have been nominated: not Morgan Freeman
I've yet to decide if I like Bridges performance better than Jeremy Renner's work. Believe it or not, they're pretty evenly matched in my estimation. I'm fine with Bridges winning his long overdue Oscar here. If there's a spoiler, it's Colin Firth who just won the BAFTA. But that's not happening here, I don't think. I'm not feeling a groundswell of support for a A Single Man in general, so I'm guessing it'll be hard for first time nominee Firth to pull an upset here.
Best Actress
will win: Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
should win: Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
should have been nominated: Tilda Swinton - Julia
The minute The Blind Side received that best picture nomination, Sandra sealed the deal. Don't get me wrong. Meryl's still in contention and I wouldn't be surprised if she won. But Sandra's in the lead. Losing the BAFTA to Carey Mulligan where Bullock wasn't nominated may have been the death knell for Streep. And of course, if it's between Sandra Bullock and Meryl Streep, I pick Meryl. But I propose a whacky thought, which is why does it have to be either? For my money, both Julie & Julia and The Blind Side are pretty bad movies--the former less so, but only slightly. I'm not in the "Street is overdue because she hasn't won since 1982" camp. She has two on her shelf. Not that I'm against rewarding her again. I love Meryl Streep. For the record, if it were up to me, she would have won four additional statuettes for Silkwood, Postcards from the Edge, Adaptation and The Devil Wears Prada bringing her tally to a nice six. But I don't feel it prudent to reward Streep for good work in a bad film that wouldn't have brought an Oscar nomination to any other actress. Bullock did fair work in a film that was both bad and offe
nsively pandering, so naturally I can't support that. I'm hoping for an Adrien Brody scenario, where the Academy can't decide between the two frontrunners and go for a young upstart (Mulligan or Sidibe). It pains me to say that in a Streep/Bullock horserace, Streep is the lesser of two evils. Does Meryl Streep really need the On Golden Pond Oscar? I guess it'd be more accurate to call it the Guess Who's Coming to Dinner Oscar...both are second-rate Hepburn anyhow. So, it's Bullock. And I've included a nice photo I've found of a kitten petting a duckling because it's cute, it makes me smile and I'm trying to remain positive here.
Best Supporting Actor
will win/should win: Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
should have been nominated: Anthony Mackie - The Hurt Locker
A friend of mine recently made a fairly coherent case for Christopher Plummer upsetting Waltz. Something about the luncheon and the voters seeing him in person and saying "Wow, you really are old. Like die-any-second old." But, unless I'm mistaken, Plummer wasn't even at the luncheon. Plus, Waltz has swept the precursors. Outside of a possible win in Original Screenplay, Waltz is the Academy's surest thing for rewarding a film that they clearly liked a whole lot. My friend had no counter for any of this and then I remember that he not only supported the Angelina Jolie Changeling nomination last year, but he also thought she would win. So, it's Waltz.
Best Supporting Actress
will win/should win: Mo'Nique - Precious
should have been nominated: Samantha Morton - The Messenger
"Mo to the...N to the..." Okay, I'll stop. I'm for this win so hard, you guys. So hard. Mo'Nique's success this season has really been exciting. She's going to win and that's all there is to say. If there's an upset...take cover. Remember, Anna Kendrick, duck and move...duck and move because she will kill you.
Best Original Screenplay
will win: Mark Boal - The Hurt Locker
should win: Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds
This is by no means a done deal. Tarantino could still very well upset here. What I think will prevent him from winning is the fact that he's won already in this category. Maybe they'll want to spread the wealth a little.
Best Adapted Screenplay
will win: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner - Up in the Air
should win: Geoffrey Fletcher - Precious
Sigh. Jason Reitman will take the podium. The more I think about Up in the Air and how Jason Reitman's films seem so blissfully uninterested in anything outside of white America, even when exploring, ramping up and fetishizing the fringe and the quirk, I bubble and brim with rage a little bit. But I suppose it's not fair to put that on him. Because that one lady in Up in the Air, you know the one who killed herself because she got fired (which automatically makes her stand out)...she was African-American. So, it's okay. I'm on to you Jason Reitman.
Here are my final predictions for the big categories.
Best Picture
will win/should win: The Hurt Locker
should have been nominated: I'm fine with like 80% of the best picture list, but I would have liked to see The Messenger get some more love. Hunger is ineligible.
I'm going back and forth on this one, but not in the way that you'd think. I'm not buying the Avatar talk. Yes, it's a money machine. But it got zero acting nods and no writing nomination. Plus, it lost the Producers Guild Award in what should have been a cakewalk. It's no secret that a lot of actors not only dislike it, but they are offended by the sheer notion of motion capture as acting. Actors make up the largest branch in the academy. The Hurt Locker has the DGA, the PGA, the WGA and the ACE Eddie Award. Statistically, any film with this haul is not going to lose, despite whatever hamhanded controversy is being drummed up by so and so sending such and such email to what's his name. The bottom line: no one would even be talking about Avatar winning best picture if it wasn't for the Golden Globe win--an award that, prior to Slumdog Millionaire last year, hadn't matched up with the Oscar winner since Lord of the Rings. So, it's the Hurt Locker with Inglourious Basterds as a long-range spoiler, followed by Avatar in third.
Best Director
will win/should win: Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
should have been nominated: my ballot includes Jane Campion and John Hillcoat
It's a done deal. Even if The Hurt Locker somehow, in some universe very not like this one loses best picture, Bigelow is still going to win. There's so much enthusiasm behind her at this point. It's always possible to lose, but I just can't imagine who she'd lose to. Cameron? Already has one and he's not very well liked. Tarantino? Maybe... Reitman? Too soon. Daniels? Too black. Bigelow's got this and I'm firmly in her corner.
Best Actor
will win/should win: Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
should have been nominated: not Morgan Freeman
I've yet to decide if I like Bridges performance better than Jeremy Renner's work. Believe it or not, they're pretty evenly matched in my estimation. I'm fine with Bridges winning his long overdue Oscar here. If there's a spoiler, it's Colin Firth who just won the BAFTA. But that's not happening here, I don't think. I'm not feeling a groundswell of support for a A Single Man in general, so I'm guessing it'll be hard for first time nominee Firth to pull an upset here.
Best Actress
will win: Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
should win: Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
should have been nominated: Tilda Swinton - Julia
The minute The Blind Side received that best picture nomination, Sandra sealed the deal. Don't get me wrong. Meryl's still in contention and I wouldn't be surprised if she won. But Sandra's in the lead. Losing the BAFTA to Carey Mulligan where Bullock wasn't nominated may have been the death knell for Streep. And of course, if it's between Sandra Bullock and Meryl Streep, I pick Meryl. But I propose a whacky thought, which is why does it have to be either? For my money, both Julie & Julia and The Blind Side are pretty bad movies--the former less so, but only slightly. I'm not in the "Street is overdue because she hasn't won since 1982" camp. She has two on her shelf. Not that I'm against rewarding her again. I love Meryl Streep. For the record, if it were up to me, she would have won four additional statuettes for Silkwood, Postcards from the Edge, Adaptation and The Devil Wears Prada bringing her tally to a nice six. But I don't feel it prudent to reward Streep for good work in a bad film that wouldn't have brought an Oscar nomination to any other actress. Bullock did fair work in a film that was both bad and offe
nsively pandering, so naturally I can't support that. I'm hoping for an Adrien Brody scenario, where the Academy can't decide between the two frontrunners and go for a young upstart (Mulligan or Sidibe). It pains me to say that in a Streep/Bullock horserace, Streep is the lesser of two evils. Does Meryl Streep really need the On Golden Pond Oscar? I guess it'd be more accurate to call it the Guess Who's Coming to Dinner Oscar...both are second-rate Hepburn anyhow. So, it's Bullock. And I've included a nice photo I've found of a kitten petting a duckling because it's cute, it makes me smile and I'm trying to remain positive here.Best Supporting Actor
will win/should win: Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
should have been nominated: Anthony Mackie - The Hurt Locker
A friend of mine recently made a fairly coherent case for Christopher Plummer upsetting Waltz. Something about the luncheon and the voters seeing him in person and saying "Wow, you really are old. Like die-any-second old." But, unless I'm mistaken, Plummer wasn't even at the luncheon. Plus, Waltz has swept the precursors. Outside of a possible win in Original Screenplay, Waltz is the Academy's surest thing for rewarding a film that they clearly liked a whole lot. My friend had no counter for any of this and then I remember that he not only supported the Angelina Jolie Changeling nomination last year, but he also thought she would win. So, it's Waltz.
Best Supporting Actress
will win/should win: Mo'Nique - Precious
should have been nominated: Samantha Morton - The Messenger
"Mo to the...N to the..." Okay, I'll stop. I'm for this win so hard, you guys. So hard. Mo'Nique's success this season has really been exciting. She's going to win and that's all there is to say. If there's an upset...take cover. Remember, Anna Kendrick, duck and move...duck and move because she will kill you.
Best Original Screenplay
will win: Mark Boal - The Hurt Locker
should win: Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds
This is by no means a done deal. Tarantino could still very well upset here. What I think will prevent him from winning is the fact that he's won already in this category. Maybe they'll want to spread the wealth a little.
Best Adapted Screenplay
will win: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner - Up in the Air
should win: Geoffrey Fletcher - Precious
Sigh. Jason Reitman will take the podium. The more I think about Up in the Air and how Jason Reitman's films seem so blissfully uninterested in anything outside of white America, even when exploring, ramping up and fetishizing the fringe and the quirk, I bubble and brim with rage a little bit. But I suppose it's not fair to put that on him. Because that one lady in Up in the Air, you know the one who killed herself because she got fired (which automatically makes her stand out)...she was African-American. So, it's okay. I'm on to you Jason Reitman.
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