Golden Globe Winners and Thoughts

The Golden Globes actually held some surprises last night, like Winslet walking away with two trophies!

• Best Picture, Drama: Slumdog Millionaire
• Best Picture, Comedy Musical: Vicky Cristina Barcelona
• Best Director: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
• Best Actor, Drama: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
• Best Actress, Drama: Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
• Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
• Best Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader
• Best Screenplay: Simon Beaufoy: Slumdog Millionaire
• Best Foreign Language Film: Waltz With Bashir
• Best Animated Feature: WALL·E
• Best Actor, Musical/Comedy: Colin Farrell
• Best Actress, Musical/Comedy: Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
• Best Original Score: A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millonaire
• Best Original Song: Bruce Springsteen, The Wrestler

I scored 10/14, but missing Rourke for Penn, Winslet for Hathaway, Farrell for Hoffman and Rahman for Desplat.

What does this mean for Oscar?

Best Picture: Slumdog wins here, as expected and predicted. It's going to win best picture. The last film to win best score, adapted screenplay, picture and director at the Globes was The Last Emperor. It's too big to lose.

Best Actress: First, let's talk about Sally Hawkins. This win really changes nothing. The Oscar ballots are due tomorrow and this win was going to either her and Streep (a performance that was never going to get a nomination anyway). It's up to fate now whether Hawkins makes it in. Winslet's double win (in supporting and lead) has morphed this race into an utter free-for-all. Chaos is reigning! Can Winslet repeat that the Oscars and win both supporting and lead? That'd be interesting. Consider that if Winslet wins both acting statues at the Oscars, and Ledger wins supporting, there will only be two actors in the press room. Just a pointless aside. This is officially a threeway race between Hathaway, Streep and Winslet for the win. And at this point, if you ask me whose least likely to win between them, I'm going to say Streep. She got two Globe nominations and won zero. Kate won both. True, Streep has the BFCA, but she's tied with Hathaway. And Hathaway has the National Board of Review. That's two big surprise wins for Hathaway. Also, any doubt as to whether Winslet's going to get nominated for best actress is pretty much squelched due to those pesky Globe statistics. No winner for best actress drama has EVER failed to land a best actress nod. Remember last year when people were like "Atonement is going to be the first film in a long time to be a Globe winner for best drama that doesn't get a best picture nod?" The ballots may be due today, but those Globe statistics always mean something, n'est pas?

Best Actor: Sean Penn vs. Mickey Rourke. It's on. I still say that Rourke ultimately wins the Oscar.

Best Supporting Actor: The Ledger steamroll continues.

Best Supporting Actress: If Kate wins supporting at SAG, and loses lead, she'll be looking like more and more of a sure bet in this category. Cruz is her chief competition, with Davis having a very outside chance.

Golden Globe Predictions

Golden Globe Nominations

Best Film - Drama

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Frost/Nixon
• The Reader
• Revolutionary Road
• Slumdog Millionaire

Predicted Winner: Initially, I would have said Benjamin Button takes this. It's so the HFPA's style (big, epic, pretty). HFPA has been breaking with the Oscars in the best picture category for some time, but I'm guessing that the steamroll/international flavor of Slumdog Millionaire will be too difficult for them to pass up. I've been really hard on Slumdog of late. It's overrated, yes, but still a good movie. Also, if it keeps the even more overrated and uneven Benjamin Button from winning best picture, then I say hooray.

Spoiler: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

Best Film - Musical or Comedy

• Burn After Reading
• Happy-Go-Lucky
• In Bruges
• Mamma Mia!
• Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Predicted Winner: Vicky Cristina Barcelona takes this, I think. Though any of these five are believable winners. It's a very wide open category.

Spoiler: Burn After Reading. The didn't give the Coens best picture last year. Penance?

Best Actor - Drama

• Leonardo DiCaprio - Revolutionary Road
• Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
• Sean Penn - Milk
• Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

Predicted Winner: I still say Sean Penn wins here, as I predicted initially. But that doesn't mean he'll win the Oscar. Crowe swept most of the precursors in 2001 and they still gave it to Denzel Washington. Being a previous winner always makes it difficult, unless your last name is Swank. I'm just glad that best actor seems to be between two great performances (Penn vs. Rourke).

Spoiler: Mickey Rourke

Best Actor - Musical or Comedy

• Javier Bardem - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
• Colin Farrell - In Bruges
• James Franco - Pineapple Express
• Brendan Gleeson - In Bruges
• Dustin Hoffman - Last Chance Harvey

Predicted Winner: Dustin Hoffman, though will they really let In Bruges go home empty-handed? Clearly, they like it alot.

Spoiler: Colin Farrell

Best Actress - Drama

• Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
• Angelina Jolie - Changeling
• Meryl Streep - Doubt
• Kristin Scott Thomas - I've Loved You So Long (Il y a longtemps que je t'aime)
• Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road

Predicted Winner: I'll kick myself if I don't predict Anne Hathaway and she ends up winning, so that's what I'm going to do. Streep is obviously the logical choice, but she has six Golden Globes. I don't get this whole "they won't let Streep go home empty-handed" business. The spoiler, I believe is...

Spoiler: Kate Winslet, who has NEVER won a Globe (can you believe that?) And the HFPA clearly liked Revolutionary Road a lot more than everyone else did. She could very well win.

Best Actress - Musical or Comedy

• Rebecca Hall - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
• Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
• Frances McDormand - Burn After Reading
• Meryl Streep - Mamma Mia!
• Emma Thompson - Last Chance Harvey

Predicted Winner: Sally Hawkins should take this. The HFPA is not stupid enough to give it to Streep (knock on wood).

Spoiler: Streep, anyhow.

Best Supporting Actor

• Tom Cruise - Tropic Thunder
• Robert Downey, Jr. - Tropic Thunder
• Ralph Fiennes - The Duchess
• Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
• Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
  

Predicted Winner: Heath Ledger. The end.

Spoiler: With Josh Brolin out of this race, is there really a spoiler here?

Best Supporting Actress

• Amy Adams - Doubt
• Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
• Viola Davis - Doubt
• Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
• Kate Winslet - The Reader

Predicted Winner: Kate Winslet. This is an easy place for them to reward her. I think BFCA indicated the beginnings of a sweep.

Spoiler: Believe it or not, it's not Cruz. Viola Davis.

Best Director

• Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
• Stephen Daldry - The Reader
• David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
• Sam Mendes - Revolutionary Road

Predicted Winner: Danny Boyle.

Spoiler: David Fincher

Best Screenplay

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Eric Roth
• Doubt - John Patrick Shanley
• Frost/Nixon - Peter Morgan
• The Reader - David Hare
• Slumdog Millionaire - Simon Beaufoy

Predicted Winner: This is a good place to reward Slumdog Millionaire.

Spoiler: None

Best Foreign Language Film

• The Baader Meinhof Complex (Der Baader Meinhof Komplex) • Germany
• Everlasting Moments (Maria Larssons eviga ögonblick) • Denmark/Sweden
• Gomorrah (Gomorra) • Italy
• I've Loved You So Long (Il y a longtemps que je t'aime) • France
• Waltz with Bashir (Vals im Bashir) • Israel

Predicted Winner: Waltz with Bashir

Best Animated Film

• Bolt
• Kung Fu Panda
• WALL-E

Predicted Winner: I'm not going to dignify this with a prediction.

Best Original Score

• "Changeling" - Clint Eastwood
• "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" - Alexandre Desplat
• "Defiance" - James Newton Howard
• "Frost/Nixon" - Hans Zimmer
• "Slumdog Millionaire" - A. R. Rahman

Predicted Winner: Alexandre Desplat

Best Original Song

• "I Thought I Lost You" - Bolt
• "Once in a Lifetime" - Cadillac Records
• "Gran Torino" - Gran Torino
• "Down to Earth" - WALL-E
• "The Wrestler" - The Wrestler

Predicted Winner: God, anyone but Clint Eastwood. I say The Wrestler takes this.

Anne Hathaway...Premature Globe Winner?

I caught wind of this story from Perez Hilton of all places (I know, I'm terrible.) Apparently, on the Hollywood Foreign Press Association Website, Anne Hathaway was already listed as a Golden Globe Winner for Best Motion Picture Actress - Drama. The "mistake" was later corrected, but has a lot of people asking...is Hathaway the winner?

That would please me to no end. She already tied Streep tonight for the Critics Choice Award. If she beats Streep AND Winslet, that sort of makes her a frontrunner, dontcha think?

Oh, what a stressful time it must be for Hathaway to hear this story. And on the eve of the Globes (sort of). Oh nacht mare!

Likely to be Hathaway's reaction face when she wins the Globe. Sweetie, we all love Meryl Streep, but let's be objective. You know you were better.

Golden Globe Nominations

Golden Globe Nominations

Best Film - Drama

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Frost/Nixon
• The Reader
• Revolutionary Road
• Slumdog Millionaire

Who takes a hit? The absence of Milk is puzzling. Homophobia? But the HFPA awarded Brokeback Mountain their best picture prize. Who knows? It's puzzling, yes, but probably doesn't mean anything. I still believe Milk is in, just as I believe that the best picture nods here for The Reader and Revolutionary Road won't translate as Oscar love. The Dark Knight takes a huge dive. It can still make it, but a nod here would have firmed things up in a good way.

Predicted Winner: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. Though Slumdog Millionaire could easily upset. Anything else would be a surprise.

Best Film - Musical or Comedy

• Burn After Reading
• Happy-Go-Lucky
• In Bruges
• Mamma Mia!
• Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Who takes a hit? No one. There are actually no comedic or musical heavy hitters this year that were ever bound for Oscar glory. Which makes this category all the more fun.
This is an exciting category since the HFPA is not bound to award the film with the best Oscar chances. All of these films have very little chance at a best picture nod. Thank God they didn't nominate High School Musical.

Predicted Winner: Burn After Reading (it's definitely the most popular of the five, right?)

Best Actor - Drama

• Leonardo DiCaprio - Revolutionary Road
• Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
• Sean Penn - Milk
• Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

What a volatile category this is! Great nominations across the board, I must say. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a 5/5 matchup of this lineup in the Oscar best actor race. The most vulnerable are DiCaprio and Pitt, in that order. Either one of them could easily be shoved aside for Richard Jenkins or even Clint Eastwood. But...
Who takes a hit? Clint Eastwood. If the Globes, in all of their starfucking, couldn't see fit to honor Clint Eastwood for Gran Torino (in what admittedly looks like a pretty wretched, laughable performance) then where does that leave him? The SAGs will tell and don't forget he got an acting nod for Million Dollar Baby when the precursors weren't rallying, but this is a pretty big hit. I for one hope he gets passed over. Having Clint out of the race automatically makes things simpler. Because if he's nominated, he'll probably win. Ugh.

Predicted Winner: For now, I'm saying Penn, but if they loved Milk enough to give it to him, why no best picture or director nod? They've awarded DiCaprio before, and Langella is playing a real person who's NOT gay. That always helps. This could also be where Rourke makes his move. Very volatile indeed.

Best Actor - Musical or Comedy

• Javier Bardem - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
• Colin Farrell - In Bruges
• James Franco - Pineapple Express
• Brendan Gleeson - In Bruges
• Dustin Hoffman - Last Chance Harvey

Who takes a hit? No one. Again, no real male leading comedic performances have a shot at Oscar.

Predicted Winner: Dustin Hoffman

Best Actress - Drama

• Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
• Angelina Jolie - Changeling
• Meryl Streep - Doubt
• Kristin Scott Thomas - I've Loved You So Long (Il y a longtemps que je t'aime)
• Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road

Kristin Scott Thomas really REALLY needed this. Like, severely. This is a big boost, since she's not doing well in the precursors and the critics are rallying around Sally Hawkins. Hathaway, Streep and Winslet are good to go. I'm still not convinced that Jolie is locked and loaded. I hope not, especially since she was passed over for a far better performance at the AMPAS last year.
Who takes a hit? One could say Melissa Leo for Frozen River, but she was NEVER going to get a Golden Globe nomination. They love their stars and the film is simply too small for them. Period. I'd say this hurts Cate Blanchett. I personally was never really buying the lead actress buzz for her Benjamin Button performance. Not for one minute. Hopefully I won't have to think about it anymore.

Predicted Winner: I think Meryl Streep will win this handily. If (big IF) there's a spoiler, I believe it's Ms. Hathaway. If Winslet wins here, it's down to her and Streep for the Oscar.

Best Actress - Musical or Comedy

• Rebecca Hall - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
• Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
• Frances McDormand - Burn After Reading
• Meryl Streep - Mamma Mia!
• Emma Thompson - Last Chance Harvey

Sally Hawkins needed this nomination. She got it. She's going to win, unless the HFPA decides that they REALLY love Streep.

Predicted Winner: Sally Hawkins

Best Supporting Actor

• Tom Cruise - Tropic Thunder
• Robert Downey, Jr. - Tropic Thunder
• Ralph Fiennes - The Duchess
• Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
• Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight

Who takes a hit? Josh Brolin and James Franco for Milk, as well as Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road. But honestly, it's not really a HUGE deal. We all know that neither Tom Cruise nor Ralph Fiennes are getting in for these respective performances. That leaves two spots open.

Predicted Winner: I think this is where the Heath Ledger steamroll begins.

Best Supporting Actress

• Amy Adams - Doubt
• Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
• Viola Davis - Doubt
• Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
• Kate Winslet - The Reader

Who takes a hit? Rosemarie Dewitt for Rachel Getting Married and Taraji P. Henson for Benjamin Button. Dewitt has now missed BFCA and the Globes. If she misses SAG, she may be done for.

Predicted Winner: Penelope Cruz. Though we could see the start of a Kate Winslet sweep in this category, which would suck beyond the telling of it.

Best Director

• Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
• Stephen Daldry - The Reader
• David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
• Sam Mendes - Revolutionary Road

Who takes a hit? Obviously, Gus Van Sant and Christopher Nolan for their respective films (Milk and The Dark Knight). But again, Sam Mendes and Stephen Daldry are not looking very likely at this point, so either of them could move aside for Nolan or Van Sant.

Predicted Winner: David Fincher

Best Screenplay

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Eric Roth
• Doubt - John Patrick Shanley
• Frost/Nixon - Peter Morgan
• The Reader - David Hare
• Slumdog Millionaire - Simon Beaufoy

Since the AMPAS (rightly) divides up it's screenplay categories into adapted and original, look to see all of these screenplays announced on nomination morning.

Predicted Winner: This is a good place to reward Slumdog Millionaire.

Best Foreign Language Film

• The Baader Meinhof Complex (Der Baader Meinhof Komplex) • Germany
• Everlasting Moments (Maria Larssons eviga ögonblick) • Denmark/Sweden
• Gomorrah (Gomorra) • Italy
• I've Loved You So Long (Il y a longtemps que je t'aime) • France
• Waltz with Bashir (Vals im Bashir) • Israel

Predicted Winner: Waltz with Bashir

Best Animated Film

• Bolt
• Kung Fu Panda
• WALL-E

Predicted Winner: Oh my God, do you even have to ask?

Best Original Score

• "Changeling" - Clint Eastwood
• "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" - Alexandre Desplat
• "Defiance" - James Newton Howard
• "Frost/Nixon" - Hans Zimmer
• "Slumdog Millionaire" - A. R. Rahman

Best Original Song

• "I Thought I Lost You" - Bolt
• "Once in a Lifetime" - Cadillac Records
• "Gran Torino" - Gran Torino
• "Down to Earth" - WALL-E
• "The Wrestler" - The Wrestler