2011 Pretentious Film Awards - Best Actress in a Leading Role

And the nominees are...

Viola Davis in The Help

Neither clumsy pacing nor on-the-nose dialogue will stop Viola Davis. Where the urge may have been present in other actors to play Aibileen as a simple woman with simple, modest goals, Davis turns the part on its head with her watchfulness, soul and complexity. Through silence and an unending register of conflicting emotions, Davis spins gold out of a role that, while not totally thankless as some have reductively called it, certainly would give no script reader to expect all that Davis gives here. Bonus points for “I told him I drank too much coffee.”

Kirsten Dunst in Melancholia

An actress who has always been gifted, even if she has been adrift in roles that either don't suit her or don't utilize her talents, Dunst works marvels here as Justine. What's even more marvelous? I'm not even sure she's given much to work with on paper. Still, I love the choices she makes. Though she morphs tragically from apprehension to near complete catatonia/nihilism (only VonTrier...), she remains the most recognizably human character in this piece. Even in the film's earliest moments (the maneuvering of the limousine, for instance) she makes it interesting and modulated as we watch her play a woman playing at being happy. I hope this marks an exciting new phase in the career of an actress I've always been intrigued and impressed by, but no more so than here.

  

 Elizabeth Olsen in Martha Marcy May Marlene

Watchful, reactive, without a hugely recognizable external arc. None of these elements inherently make for good drama, but man Olsen knocks it out of the park here. In one of the year's most terrifying films, she takes much of the credit for the eery pall of impending doom that envelopes Martha Marcy May Marlene. She is quiet, but still recognizably womanly and damaged. Bonus points for the film's opening scene where Olsen gives us an incredible, almost unspoken etching of a woman troubled beyond the telling of it—a promise she makes good on for the rest of the movie.

Tilda Swinton in We Need to Talk About Kevin

Swinton lands her third consecutive Pretentious Film Award nomination (I'm sure she's proud) for yet another one of her searing, indelible cinematic marks. Largely a silent, watchful performance, Swinton plays a woman whose situation we can't help but empathize with (and we do). But, she doesn't garner empathy for Eva by making her perfect or even likeable most of the time. The difference between Eva before the incident and after is not that of a woman who is whole versus one who is broken, respectively. It is that of a woman who knows the truth, even if it is self-fulfilling prophecy (how much of Kevin's proclivities are her fault?) and one who has the truth horribly confirmed from her. It is fascinating to watch a character empty out before your eyes. It is even more fascinating the way Swinton makes interesting watching a woman who has already emptied out.

Charlize Theron in Young Adult

In a category of roles that contains a downtrodden maid, the mother of a serial killer, the traumatized survivor of a cult and a recently jilted bride facing the end of the world, Charlize Theron's Mavis Gary is, believe it or not, the most damaged. I love the way Theron (and Reitman) don't easily show us the roots of Mavis's jaded and poisonous core. Theron taps into the comedienne we've seen only shades of before (her interviews, “Arrested Development”) and births a compelling, specific and funny creation. The control she has over her voice, the most important part of this performance, is something to behold. Bonus points for “I love your sweat-errr...”

2010 Pretentious Film Awards - Best Actress in a Leading Role

And the great women are...

Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole
She's back, y'all (not that she ever went anywhere). But for the first time in what seems like an eternity, public consensus seems to be behind one of Kidman's brilliant, fearless turns. I have paid much lip service to the wonderful actors surrounding her (Rabbit Hole is the only film to land nominations from me in all four acting categories), but make no mistake--Kidman's Becca, in all of her complex, funny, guarded and wounded glory, is the beating heart at the center.



Jennifer Lawrence in Winter's Bone
A true breakout discovery for 2010 and the best kind in that she's actually deserving of all the acclaim. It's surprisingly restrained and unfussy work--the kind of work that usually doesn't get recognized as great when coming from such a young performer. She intelligently and believably sells the backstory of a young girl grown up too fast without the luxury of time for big showy moments. Bonus points for her breakdown in the rowboat. A great, slow burn performance.



Lesley Manville in Another Year
From my review: "Manville manages to play Mary's hostility as simultaneously brimming, immature, embarrassing and (miraculously) quiet." Mike Leigh has always gotten fascinating and accomplished work from his leading ladies. Manville is no exception. She makes a human being out of a what is essentially a walking, talking open wound. Brilliant work.



Tilda Swinton in I Am Love
She's a sight to marvel in I Am Love. Emma Recchi is tight-lipped and internal, so much of her struggle and arch taking place without the aid of dialogue. But when she does speak, boy does she make it count. Her line reading of "You no longer know who I am" (in Italian, of course), still breaks my heart. Consider Tilda's Julia--a character that you couldn't imagine existing in the same time zone as Emma Recchi. What a true chameleon Swinton is, proving once again that she's one of our most fearless and vital actresses working today.


Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine
Cindy is a tricky character to play. The narrative seems hellbent on positioning her as either an idea, rather than a character or the villain of the piece. But Williams's subtlety, attention to detail and ability to match in every way the fierce honesty of her screen partner goes a long way. This is her best work to date, which is very high praise indeed.


Finalists:
In such a banner year for leading female performances, this was the hardest list to compile. I immediately have to cite Natalie Portman in Black Swan, Julianne Moore and Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right (and yes, in that order). Two are our two Oscar frontrunners and all three are great turns, worthy of the many accolades being thrown their way. But lists are all about honesty and I honestly happened to like five performances better than these turns, which surprised me.

Semi-Finalists:
Emma Stone does some industrial strength heavy-lifting in Easy A and she'll have continued success while doing it her way. Carey Mulligan gains points in Never Let Me Go for doing such a thematically and narratively tricky follow-up to her soft-lob, breakout role.

Pretentious Film Awards 2009--Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

And the leading women are:

Abbie Cornish in Bright Star
Fanny Brawne is a figure that could have seemed so vague, so hazy, so distant and so irrelevant in a modern landscape. Cornish makes her accessible, even while navigating Keats poetry. She modulates brilliantly between defiance and vulnerability. Every line she delivers drips with immersion into the text. You never catch her "playing" period. And bonus points for the tender kisses, while Keats lies in Brawne's lap. Sensual and understated.




Paulina Gaitan in Sin Nombre
Clearly the standout performance, her watchfulness and guard mixed with teenage naivety anchors the film and Gaitan hits every single note. Observe the scene where she first offers Caspar food. There's so much to keep track of--fear, apprehension, gratitude and yes, attraction. And through her face and body language, she is miraculously able to communicate it all. She's definitely one to watch.



Carey Mulligan in An Education
Mulligan is absolutely bewitching as young Jenny. She expresses the heroine's quick, acerbic wit with not just her words. What this young woman does with a look, a smile that seems to know more than she speaks, and a gesture as simple as smoking a cigarette speaks volumes. Jenny may not feel wise, but Mulligan certainly is.




Gabourey Sidibe in Precious
Sidibe's Precious Jones evokes images of a sort of hybrid between Whoopi Goldberg's Celie and Heath Ledger's Ennis Del Mar. So terse, yet conveying so much pain and internal struggle. Every word spoken is labored, every smile a miracle, as if the desire or need to do either has been frightened and beaten out of her. Heartbreaking, staggering work and an amazing debut.




Tilda Swinton in Julia
Only Swinton could take a completely, almost cartoonishly unlikeable character who makes obvious mistake after obvious mistake and make it layered, interesting and modulated. There are so many notes in her performance as the title character that it's practically a symphony. And she never forgets the humor (Swinton is very funny), even in the midst of a film that verges on Greek tragedy.

Finalists/Semi-Finalists:
Not many. The five aforementioned performances are, to me, five fantastic performances, worthy of accolade in any year. Outside of those (and maybe this is due to my not having seen enough films in 2009), there aren't many female performances that excited me. This was the easiest list to make. I knew almost instantly when I saw each of these five performances that they would be in my top five. That being said, I have great fondness for Meryl Streep in Julie & Julia who does good work (as always). I also greatly enjoyed Maya Rudolph's terse vulnerability in Away we Go and I hope the film's tepid response (even I have backed off considerably after my over-praising review) doesn't prevent her from moving on to bigger things.

Oscar Nomination Predictions - Best Actress

1. Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia (lock)
2. Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side (lock)
3. Gabourey Sidibe - Precious (lock)
4. Carey Mulligan - An Education (lock)
5. Emily Blunt - The Young Victoria (wild card)

Alternate:
Helen Mirren - The Last Station, Marion Cotillard - Nine

If someone had told me, even a month ago, that Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock(!) would be 1 and 2 in this race, I probably would have referred them to the nearest shrink. But alas, there you have it. I never would have thought I'd be rooting for Streep in THIS particular performance, but given the choice between her and Bullock, I prefer Streep (but only slightly, mind you). I think it's interesting that everyone has suddenly decided that Mulligan is safer than Sidibe. I would argue that they're both still locks, as they have been for some time now. If one is weaker than the other, it's Mulligan whose film peaked way too early. Mo'Nique's sweeping of the precursors has brought Precious back into the conversation, whereas An Education is kind of being forgotten. At any rate, the top four slots are solid bets. The last slot, which most are giving to Mirren (and they may be right), I've decided to give to Emily Blunt. The Last Station didn't really get that much more of a release than The Young Victoria. If they're choosing between their British thesps in films that nobody saw, I could feasibly see them tossing more votes to Blunt, who is sure to get a nomination eventually (so why not now?) as opposed to Mirren who won very recently. I played around with the idea of predicting Tilda Swinton for Julia and I might have done it if more critics had gone for her. It's just not happening, though. In a perfect world, Swinton would be locked and loaded for a second very well deserved win. If it happens, I'll be happy to be wrong. I'm just not feeling the possibility.

The Pretentious Film Awards--Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

And the five leading ladies are...


Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married
This rising star proves herself in a career-best performance in one of the year's best films. Even in the midst of this often frenetic film, with its ever expanding ensemble, your eyes are always on Kym. Perfection.

Sally Hawkins in Happy-Go-Lucky
For taking what could have felt like a stock character and giving her depth and purpose. Another finely honed female performance under Mike Leigh's expert direction.

Melissa Leo in Frozen River
A standout performance from a longtime respectable character actress. She always knows exactly what she's doing, even if the film doesn't.

Michelle Williams in Wendy and Lucy
This is a film whose power has to lie in what is essentially its only central performance. Williams steps up to the task admirably, and never oversells the big moments.

Kate Winslet in The Reader
She'll likely receive an Oscar nod in lead for Revolutionary Road, but she is far better here and by a wide margin. It's more than an accent, it's more than aging makeup. Kate Winslet full inhabits Hanna Schmitz in one of her most raw and fearless performances to date.


Runners Up: Ludivine Sagnier is superb in A Girl Cut in Two. Rebecca Hall is wonderfully neurotic and forceful in Vicky Cristina Barcelona upon second viewing. Kate Winslet does marital strife up right in Revolutionary Road (but she's so much better in The Reader. Seriously, it's a complete no brainer). Man, did Julianne Moore ever try to make something out of Blindness.

Early Oscar Predictions--Best Actress

If you haven't figured out by now, I have a weird obsession with the Oscars that borders on pathological. I'll be posting a few thoughts on the state of the race (as I see it) in all four of the acting categories, as well as directing and best picture. At this point, much of it is speculation and we won't really have some concrete answers until at least September. There are some I feel confident about already, but when it comes to the sport of predicting Oscars, you never know what will happen and everything is for sale. This is true before the nominations are announced right up until the winners are announced.

Best Actress

If this were my personal wishlist, it'd comprise of...nevermind. I have to forget about my personal tastes, and consider those of the big O. Because we rarely see eye-to-eye, especially in the Best Actress category. In the past ten years, when I think about my ballot versus who Oscar nominates, the most we've ever had was a 3/5 match. But alas, the past is the past. Looking forward to the rest of 2008, I have a very hard time foreseeing a list that doesn't include at least one (if not more) of the following (in this order)

1. Meryl Streep in Doubt
Conventional wisdom says that if you have Streep in a lead role (one that isn't in an adaptation of a stage musical comprised of ABBA music) that Oscar prognosticators should pay attention. Both this performance and the project in show a lot of promise. Adapted from John Patrick Shanley's (Oscar winner for penning the screenplay for Moonstruck, dontcha know) award-winning Broadway play, some are predicting that Doubt will not only bring Streep's nomination total to 15, but will bring the actress her third statue. If the film's good enough, fine. Love the Streep. But I'd kind of like to see Winslet win her first, before Meryl gets three. Especially if she's more deserving.

2. Angelina Jolie in The Changeling or The Exchange
I almost didn't include Jolie, but the fact remains that the buzz for this performance and this film are deafening at this point. And it's directed by Clint Eastwood, a man who has taken (wait for it) five performers to Oscar wins, and another two to nominations (three if you include himself). Plus, she's having a good personal year and who doesn't want to see her up on podiums, gushing happily about Brad and the kids (I mean, I personally don't, but there are a lot of people who eat up that sort of thing.) Plus, people seem to forget that beneath the media frenzy and the world treks and the huge harem that Angelina Jolie is ultimately a talented actress. More talented than she receives credit for. And she was on the cusp of a nomination last year for A Mighty Heart. All of this makes the possibility for a nod for Ms. Jolie very good.

3. Kate Winslet in Revolutionary Road
Yeah, yeah. It's been years since American Beauty. Sam Mendes has lost the magic. Depending on who you talk to, he never had it. But it's Winslet as a troubled housewife (something she does very well) based on a book that's beloved in certain circles. She's also being directed by her hubby and it reunites her with Titanic cast-mates Leonardo DiCaprio and Kathy Bates. Hopefully the Titanic connection will help overcome the fact that adult dramas about marital strife are a little elevated and not exactly rife for mass public consumption. But Winslet, a five-time nominee already, will probably be sitting pretty with a sixth, regardless of whether the film itself goes all the way to the final five. Consider that back in 2006, it seemed that Little Children was the film that time forgot. Heavily hyped as Todd Field's follow-up to his taught, intelligent debut In the Bedroom, this film puttered. It got a paltry release, and even though the Globes nominated it for best picture, they didn't even show a clip for it like they did for the other nominees! Yet despite all this, Winslet's name never left people's lips as a lock for a nomination...she's that good (though, to be fair, all the nominees that year were locks and had been for several months leading into the ceremony). Though, like Little Children, I see few people being enthusiastic about this film to the point that they'll give Winslet the statue. Where's the gimmick? She's not ugly-ing herself up. She's not playing a famous, recently deceased person. She's playing an attractive fictional character, and if the incredible Julie Christie-tease of 2007 is any indication, the Academy is done with that sort of thing...for now.


4. Emily Blunt in The Young Victoria
Follow my insane logic here. They will nominate either Emily Blunt or they will nominate Keira Knightley for The Duchess, or they will nominate neither. They won't nominate both. There's usually only room for one uptight, corset-y period piece in best actress these days (and honestly, it's kind of a category the AMPAS has been shying away from, save Cate Blanchett's inexplicable throwaway nomination for Elizabeth: The Golden Age). I'm predicting Blunt because she's been on the radar as one to watch since My Summer of Love, and she's the type of rising star who is bound to get herself a nomination one day.


5. Dakota Fanning in The Secret Life of Bees
Okay. This is my total, out-of-left-field prediction, but hear me out. Fanning, like Blunt, is totally headed for a nomination one day and we all know it. The film is based on a kind of beloved (though somewhat facile and digestible) novel. The material is certainly there for the makings of the type of child performance the AMPAS usually nominates (when they do nominate children). Beyond that, I don't really have any other reason for this prediction (but those are pretty good reasons, right?) And to everyone who always predicts lineups at the beginning of the season full of already nominated (or winning) stars in big-bait roles, remember the Ellen Pages, the Keisha Castle Hughes's, the Catalina Sandino Morenos and the (God, I can barely type it) Helen Hunts (*shudder*). They aren't your usual Oscar-fare, yet they do get nominated...and sometimes they win.


Also in Contention:

6. Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married
There are a lot of reasons why I didn't include Ms. Hathaway in the top five. Although things are kind of changing, the ratio of comedic performances to dramatic performances among Oscar nominees is still relatively low. Jonathan Demme may be an Oscar-winning director, but for every Silence of the Lambs, there are four or five Manchurian Candidates and The Truth About Charlies in his filmography. Translation: he doesn't have the best track record for getting actors nominated, both of late and in the grand scheme of thing. Why the title change? Dancing with Shiva was a great title! Finally, I really REALLY love Anne Hathaway and (in my twisted mind) I don't want to jinx her by putting her in the top five this prematurely. That being said, the trailer looks fantastic and the cast is a character-actor's dream (Anna Deavere Smith? I'm so there...) Plus, I'm really excited about the potential comeback of Debra Winger. Please return to us...

7. Sally Hawkins in Happy Go Lucky
Two potential comedic nods in one year (Hawkins and Hathaway)? It could happen. It happened last year (Laura Linney and Ellen Page). Sally Hawkins is enjoying some very good early buzz for her performance. Plus, director Mike Leigh has a fairly good track record for getting nominations for his leading ladies (Brenda Blethyn and Imelda Staunton). There are obvious obstacles in place. She has to overcome the lack of name recognition and it's a small film. But stranger things have happened. We'll have to see how the year progresses, but honestly, Hawkins feels like a very likely bet.

8. Melissa Leo in Frozen River
I think this can happen if Sony Pictures Classics runs a thorough and aggressive campaign. Melissa Leo has a lot of hurdles to overcome. Often times, there are small releases early to mid-year with perceived strong lead performances that garner mumblings of Oscar buzz. And then, by year's end, they've all but faded from consideration. Case in point, Keri Russell in Waitress (a performance I wouldn't have nominated in a film I didn't particularly enjoy, but it's the same idea). In 2006, Gretchen Mol's very respectable star turn in The Notorious Bettie Page went wildly unnoticed. This could very well happen to Leo if the studio doesn't play its cards right. The iron is pretty hot right now, with Ebert giving the performance and the film his seal of approval (I have a feeling it'll end up on his top ten list). But it's an uphill battle for a (mostly) unknown actress.

8. Nicole Kidman in Australia
A nomination for her wouldn't surprise me for obvious reasons. Baz Luhrmann took her to her first Oscar-nominated role. But Academy hasn't revisited Kidman since her win for The Hours back in 2002. After her egregious snub last year for Margot at the Wedding, it doesn't look like they're too eager to rekindle their love affair with her. Unless Australia really impresses in a big way (and I'm hoping that it does--love Luhrmann) Kidman is not a safe pony to bet on.

9. Kerry Washington in Lakeview Terrace
I don't know why I read the synopsis for this film and thought it could hold Oscar possibilities for Washington, one of my favorite actresses. The trailer is ridiculous and it seems to be the Samuel L. Jackson show anyway. Maybe it was just wishful thinking. But who knows...the film may be a huge breakthrough for her and bring her to her first nomination...I can dream, right?

10. Julianne Moore in Blindness
The new Fernando Meirelles film didn't get the best buzz when it opened at Cannes earlier this year. This may leave Julianne Moore's chances dead in the water, unless the film sees some kind of resurgence. Remember that Babel opened to fairly mixed reviews initially, but had its awards flame reignited pretty much because of the Golden Globes. Plus, who doesn't want to see Moore finally win an Oscar?